Soy is one of the main commercial crops in the country, and at the same time it has influenced
the change in land use, significantly in the deforestation of the Brazilian Cerrado. It is
noteworthy that its demand is parameterized exponentially for various applications, cosmetics,
food and biofuel generation, and that it is available as the major cause of territorial
transformations in Brazil. Tocantins is on the list of federative units whose economic matrix is
dominated by agribusiness, especially by the production chain of this oilseed. In view of the
flexibility of state and federal laws in the treatment of some Conservation Units inserted in the
Tocantins state limit, this work aims to prospect the advance of soy in the surroundings and in
the interiors of these protected areas, as well as its dynamics from scenarios of climatic risks to
the performance of this plant, which is highly correlated to water stress. Thus, a pedotransfer
function was constructed to estimate the Available Water Capacity (AWC) in the State with
Embrapa granulometric samples. This variable was considered an input for the water balance
calculation simulation of 36 legume sowing dates to determine its Water Need Satisfaction
Index (WNSI) by planting date. Other simulations were generated for two other climatic risk
zonings of the crop under scrutiny, using simulated rainfall and average temperature averages
simulated and corrected with observational data between 2021 and 2050 for 130 coordinates of
pluviometric stations. Each zoning built belongs to a constant reflection of atmospheric
radiation due to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the global circulation model MIROC5,
RCP 4.5 W / m² and 8.5 W / m². These two paths representative of the climate were inserted as
static variables in a model of uses and occupations (LUCC - land-use and land-cover change)
of Dinamica EGO, which was calibrated for the weights of the transition probabilities and
validated by the Hagen method (2003). Data from the State's forest inventory carried out by the
State Government's Planning Secretariat (Seplan) allowed the quantification of carbon dioxide
equivalent (CO2e) resulting from the transition from areas of natural vegetation to a soybean
production system and the degree of deforestation in UCs and in their buffer zones. In both
scenarios, the Bananal/Cantão Island was the most affected by the pressure from agricultural
investments. It had at least one planting date of low risk to water deficiency, WNSI in the
phenological phase of flowering and filling of grains above 0.65, being highlighted for being
with low climatic vulnerability between the years 2021 and 2050, in the two projections made.
These temporal space models also identified investment leakages in the largest municipal
producers, Campos Lindos and Mateiros, as they are geographically positioned in high
frequency areas of WSNI below 0.55, both in the trend view and in the pessimistic view
regarding the treatment of climate change policies.
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