Leprosy is a chronic, infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae, transmitted through
prolonged contact with an individual infected with one of the multibacillary forms who is not
undergoing treatment. Tocantins, located in the northern region of Brazil, is the newest state
created and stands out for its growing number of leprosy cases. The aim of this study was to
analyze the time series from 2013 to 2022 and forecast the occurrence of leprosy in the state of
Tocantins from 2023 to 2025. The study used data available on the Notifiable Diseases
Information System (SINAN) platform. A total of 13,406 leprosy cases were recorded between
2013 and 2022, with an annual average of 1,340 cases. In the time series, it was possible to
confirm that leprosy in the state of Tocantins occurs in an endemic pattern, with a linear trend
and seasonal reduction in the months of July and December. With the results obtained, it was
possible to design an ARIMA (1,0,1)(0,1,1) mathematical model for the disease, in which the
forecast of cases for the state of Tocantins in 2023 is 965 cases, in 2024 this figure will be 1,046
cases and in 2025 1,096 cases of the disease are expected in the state, remaining in an endemic
and linear pattern, showing an increase in the number of cases. This forecast was based on the
actions currently being taken to combat the disease. If other measures can be adopted, this
scenario could change, either with an increase in the number of cases or a decrease in them.
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