Malaria is a worldwide parasite, concentrating mainly in tropical and subtropical locations. In Brazil, in the Legal Amazon region, it is characterized as an endemic disease, and it is responsible for more than 99% of the cases in the Nation. Its presence in the region has a multifactorial character, such as socioeconomic, demographic and environmental influences, and also some variables such as temperature, precipitation and deforestation. All of them influence the dynamics of the disease. The aim of this study was to comprehend the dynamics of malaria transmission in the Legal Amazon and the nine States that comprise of this region (Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima and Tocantins), establishing relations between the endemic indicators and the regional climate variability and deforestation rates. This study has 5 chapters. The first chapter contains the introduction, where there is the conceptualization of the theme and of the variables that are analyzed in the study, objective and the presentation of the structure of the following chapters. The second chapter talks about the analysis of the Plan of Intensification of Malaria Control Actions (PIACM) in the Legal Amazon, based in secondary data about malaria in the Legal Amazon from 1981 to 2015, and from 1990 to 2012 (by States). It was developed an intervention analysis model in time series with the use of dummy variables that established the Annual Parasite Index (API) average of occurrence before and after the intervention. The average API (after the intervention) had a 48% reduction between the averages from two time periods. Among the States the effect was differentiated, showing the highest impact in the reduction of Malaria in Mato-Grosso, Tocantins, Roraima and Maranhão. The third chapter analyzed the spatial dynamics of the incidence of malaria in the Legal Amazon, from 2003 to 2012, and its association with deforestation and precipitation using the spatial statistic techniques and also the local and global Moran’s index through the GeoDa Program. The global Moran’s index confirmed the spatial dependence for API, precipitation and deforestation among the States. It was identified the States that presented high priority (Acre, Amazonas and Roraima) and low priority (Maranhão, Tocantins and Pará) for the malaria intervention policies. The fourth chapter talked about the modulation of the precipitation and temperature over the incidence of malaria, in both current and in future climate scenarios, focusing on the seasonality, with different results for the States that are part of the Legal Amazon. The fifth chapter was based on the proposal of a model for malaria and quarterly variables involved in the study (precipitation, deforestation, SST of the oceans), and for the final model it was necessary to exclude the variable deforestation, being more significant for the model to utilize the other variables involved. The prevention policies expressed impacts on the series, which showed a decreasing tendency in the number of cases. The States exert influence among themselves on the pattern of Malaria occurrence, being the relations with the environmental variables differentiated in each State. The results indicate that the effects of the borders in the malaria cases in the western portion of the Legal Amazon has contributed to the values of this endemic disease. It is necessary to develop other strategies in order to control the management settings of malaria in the region and the allocation of resources to fight against this disease.
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