Coronavírus is a family of viruses that cause respiratory infections. SARS-CoV-2, a new type
of virus of the coronavirus agent, called novel coronavirus (Covid-19), was discovered in
December 2019, after cases recorded in China. Based on real Covid-19 data shared by the
website: Coronavirus in the State of Pará – Metabase (2021) between March 2020 and May
2021, the present work proposes, using the deterministic epidemiological model SIR
(susceptible, infected, recovered), model and solve the aforementioned epidemiological model
through the 3rd order Runge-Kutta numerical method, study the behavior and/or dynamics of
the aforementioned pandemic in the state of Pará and calculate its forecast estimates, of
susceptible, infected and recovered . We observed that the numerical solutions of susceptible,
infected and recovered are close to the real data of susceptible, infected and recovered from
Covid-19 in the state of Pará in relation to their moving averages, respectively. We found that
the actual infected data fluctuates over the days, thus having a maximum point on May 24,
2020, a minimum point on October 17, 2020 and again a maximum point at approximately
March 17, 2021 . From May 21, 2021, it is possible to make predictions through the numerical
solution of infected, in which it is estimated that over 800 infected, daily, between the end of
July 2021 and mid-November 2021. real data of infected people are divided into two events
(two maximum points), so it is possible, on the part of government health agencies, to carry out
planning of consumption projections and input costs, such as, for example, the quantities of
cubic meters of medical oxygen and those of intubation kits, since the measurements of these
consumptions and costs are already known.
|
