Avaliação de índices climáticos na amazônia para meados e final do século xxi baseada no cenário rcp8.5 com o modelo regional ETA
The greenhouse effct is a phenomenon that causes the natural warming of the earth’s surface. However, in recent decades this warming is increasing due to natural causes and principalemente to human activities, causing global climate change, including the Amazon region with p otentially catastrophi...
| Autor principal: | Brito, Adriane Lima |
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| Grau: | Dissertação |
| Idioma: | por |
| Publicado em: |
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA
2020
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| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: |
https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/12640 http://lattes.cnpq.br/8651779320884815 |
| Resumo: |
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The greenhouse effct is a phenomenon that causes the natural warming of the earth’s
surface. However, in recent decades this warming is increasing due to natural causes and
principalemente to human activities, causing global climate change, including the Amazon region with p otentially catastrophic impacts. These changes in climate are measured
using historic al series of meteorological variables such as the temp erature and precipitation. Thus, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), through various worksops
created twenty-seven changes in weather detection indicators based on temepratura and
precipitation. They were used in this study 8 climate indices based on precipitation
and calculated in the Amaz on Basin region, which is Grende imp ortance econônima for
the p eople (directly and/or indirectly), in vie w of the role of these climatic indicators
for the middle and end of the century XXI in order to b etter planning to minimize the
environmental, so cial and economic impacts.
Thus, the present study used data from precipitation Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
and the regional mo del ETA EXP-CTRL , b oth for the p erio d 1981-1990, in order to
evaluate 8 climatic indicators, comparing their-spatial patterns and ETA validate the
mo del using statistical metho ds BIAS and RMSE. The present study also used data from
the regional mo del ETA, with the b oundary conditions of numerical simulations of the
general circulatio n mo del HadGEM2 for the scenario of greenhouse gas emissions RCP 8.5,
we selected three diffrent p erio ds, they are: 1 ) 1961-1990 (EXP-CTRL), 2) 2021-2050
(EXP-FP8.5) and 3) 2071-2100 (EXP-FD8.5). To evaluate the inflence of the increase
in the concentrati on of greenhouse gases, characterized by the IPCC scenario RCP8.5 on
8 clima te indices based on rainfall data to the Amazon Basin.
The results showed that the validation base d on BIAS, the mo del showed changes
similar to that observed in terms of spatial di stribution. In the validation based on the
RMSE, it was observed that the mo de l has go o d accuracy of the mo del in relation to
what was observed for the numb er of consecutive days and dried the maximum amount
of rainfall in a day. The results also indicated that the EXP-FP8.5 only the numb er of
consecutive rainy days, the total numb er of dry days and the total numb er of rainy days
are signifiantly impacted. So for the EXP-FP8.5 and EXP-FD8.5 exp eriments, mo del
ETA force d the HadGEM2, there may b e a signifiant increase in the numb er of dry days
and a reduction in the numb er of rainy days and consecutive or not b etween the middle
and end the twenty-fist century. For other climatic indicators (total amount of rainfall,
maximum rainfall o ccurred in 1 day, maximum rainfall amo unt o ccurred in fie days, the
p ercentile 95% of rain) mo del indicates a reduction in the amount of rain on the region
of the Amazon Basin mainly for the indic ators asso ciated with extreme events. |