Um problema de interação oceano-atmosfera-biosfera: alterações potenciais na vegetação da América do Sul devidas ao aquecimento global
One of the expected consequences of global warming is change in the distribution and structure of vegetation. Few studies have evaluated the dynamic behavior of tropical vegetation against a backdrop of elevated CO2, with mixed results for the vegetation in South America. One possibility to explain...
| Autor principal: | Pereira, Marcos Paulo Santos |
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| Grau: | Tese |
| Idioma: | por |
| Publicado em: |
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA
2020
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| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: |
https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/12661 http://lattes.cnpq.br/4022705866352132 |
| Resumo: |
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One of the expected consequences of global warming is change in the distribution and
structure of vegetation. Few studies have evaluated the dynamic behavior of tropical
vegetation against a backdrop of elevated CO2, with mixed results for the vegetation in South
America. One possibility to explain the opposite results are different patterns of sea surface
temperature (SST) used in the simulations. This thesis determines the changes in vegetation
structure in South America caused by different climate scenarios for the first half of the 21th
century, especially considering the different patterns of SST. In this study were climate
experiments using a coupled climate-vegetation model for the A2 IPCC scenario, with ten
different patterns of the SST. Initially, it is demonstrated how different predictions for SST
for the first half of 21th century increase the uncertainty associated with forecasts of the future
distribution of major ecosystems in South America. The increasing uncertainty in the ability
to forecast future vegetation patterns is such that by 2050 it is unable to robustly forecast the
vegetation cover in an area equivalent to 28% in South America (5 106 km²). The results
show that the spatial-temporal variability in SST exerts a strong influence over the vegetation
dynamics, there considerable variation in the direction and magnitude of SST effects in
different South American regions. However, the simulations for 2011-2050 show that certain
patterns of SST are likely to decrease the tropical evergreen rainforest and savanna, and that
these areas will be occupied mainly by tropical seasonal rainforest. Thus, the use of different
SST patterns in coupled climate-vegetation models is clearly important for improving
projections of future vegetation cover in this region. |