Análise do padrão de incidência da malária e sua relação com fatores climáticos e hidrológicos em escala sub-regional e local na bacia do Rio Negro
Human malaria is an infectious disease caused by protozoa of the genus Plasmodium, which is transmitted by the bite of Anopheles mosquito females. The dynamic between the aquatic and terrestrial phases of the life cycle of Anopheles involves environmental variables that act on their populations, and...
| Autor principal: | Coutinho, Paulo Eduardo Guzzo |
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| Grau: | Tese |
| Idioma: | por |
| Publicado em: |
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA
2020
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| Acesso em linha: |
https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/12689 http://lattes.cnpq.br/4055783485091371 |
| Resumo: |
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Human malaria is an infectious disease caused by protozoa of the genus Plasmodium, which is transmitted by the bite of Anopheles mosquito females. The dynamic between the aquatic and terrestrial phases of the life cycle of Anopheles involves environmental variables that act on their populations, and so, on malaria transmission. Thus, the composition of the landscapes and environmental factors act indirectly on the transmission. In this dissertation we used data of autochthonous malaria cases obtained from SIVEP-malaria database in a monthly basis and from localities. Near localities groups comprised a region and three regions were selected along the Black River in the state of Amazonas. The three regions selected: one in the upper Negro River, at São Gabriel da Cachoeira town (SGC); one in the middle Negro River, at the town of Barcelos (BARC);and one in the lower Negro River, at Manaus. The later located at the Puraquequara Lake (PRQQ), a Ria formation lake. The independent variables (VI) were river level, air temperature and precipitation on a monthly bases from 2003 to 2013. We used the sub-regional (the 3 regions) and local scales (11 locations around the PRQQ and one around the Aleixo Lake, at the Puraquequara vicinity). At the sub-regional scale were analyzed seasonality of malaria and VIs through the application of mean, time series decomposition, cross-correlations and multiple regression models. At the upper Negro River, SGC region shows no statistics results but monthly means suggest that precipitation and air temperature positively affect malaria incidence. The first associated with breeding habitats disponibility due to abundant natural water springs and streams reinforced by strong increase on fish- farming activities and the second associated with vector and patogen development. At the middle and lower Negro River, respectively BARC and PRQQ regions, all variables were correlated with malaria incidence being river level positively correlated and temperature negatively correlated in both regions, in turn, precipitation was correlated negatively at BARC and positively at PRQQ. While river level favor breeding site formation, precipitation can favor or damage them. Temperature negative correlation was associated with post incidence annual peak when it reaches mean values above 28.5 o C and suggests a combined effect of variables over incidence, because temperatures are higher at the same time precipitation and river level are lower. Differences on correlation signal and lags indicated that local landscapes characteristics affected the way climatic variables influenced in vector and pathogen life-cycle, and so, on malaria incidence. At the local scale were analyzed mean and mixed models. On 3 points air temperature measurements were collected and the rise and fall of the waters of Lake were observed. On a fourth point, Lake level measurements were collected. Significant effect of the river level was observed in all 11 locations and the second major variable was precipitation that affects 6 localities, 4 of them on stream environments. Precipitation shows no statistic results when analyzed on a lake level but was significant on a locality level analysis. The coincidence between localities on the precipitation effect and on stream conformation suggests that precipitation takes effect in a even more localized scale because the rain has greater and faster impacts how closer it happens from the heads. Means analysis suggests that 12 locations have 3 forms of seasonality and that they are the effect of the distance from the locations to the River. In conclusion, hydrological and climatic factors act differently among regions in response to specific landscape characteristics and changes on spatial scales analyzed in the same place and time, reflect different environmental effects of malaria
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