Análise espacial e temporal das relações entre a sazonalidade dos casos de malária e a variabilidade hidrológica no estado do Amazonas, Brasil
In order to verify the reliability of the data set offered by SIVEP-Malaria and examine the relationship of precipitation and river water level in response to malaria cases, this study proposed: to evaluate the autochthonous events of Malaria of the Amazonas State from 2003 to 2014; to apply alte...
| Autor principal: | Couto, Bruna Raquel Wolfarth |
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| Grau: | Tese |
| Idioma: | por |
| Publicado em: |
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA
2020
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| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: |
https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/12975 http://lattes.cnpq.br/2043978195758558 |
| Resumo: |
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In order to verify the reliability of the data set offered by SIVEP-Malaria and examine the
relationship of precipitation and river water level in response to malaria cases, this study
proposed: to evaluate the autochthonous events of Malaria of the Amazonas State from 2003
to 2014; to apply alternatives to reduce errors in the data; to analyze trends of seasonal
standards of malaria with respect to local hydrological variability; and to identify the temporal
behavior of malaria cases in relation to precipitation and river water level. Methods applied
for the data analysis were divided in three processes: 1 - Data Cleaning to identify absent data,
data interval and data consistency; 2- Filtering for malaria cases data and fluviometric data;
and 3- Analysis of coherence and phase of wavelets to identify dominant modes of variability
between variables. Results were divided in three chapters and demonstrated that: 1- the data
set of SIVEP-Malaria show some limitations to fill the forms of notification in the
spreadsheets of the Amazonas State, but this is an important and effective system to plan
actions of control; 2- with respect to seasonal standards of malaria and hydrological
variability, it is indicated seasonal trends of malaria from the wave shifting of high levels of
the rivers. Peaks of malaria cases occurred between 1 and 4 months after the river high levels
and have different characteristics according to the basin region analyzed; 3- the correlation of
precipitation anomaly and river water level with malaria cases indicated that these variables
oscillate mainly at the annual variability scale, however, other oscillations can be identified.
Precipitation and river water level showed lags in relation to malaria cases, varying
approximately 45 days before and after rain peaks and from 1 to 3 months after the peak of
river water level. The understanding of the relationship of precipitation and river water level
can clarify the impact of climatic and hydrological variables on the malaria cases. Plans of
actions that consider the current environmental and climatic conditions for each location
joined to the understanding of the lags between hydrological regimes and precipitation are
fundamental keys to the monitoring and controlling of the malaria disease. |