The Juma Sustainable Development Reserve, located in Brazil's state of Amazonas, was the first protected area in Brazil to be benefited by a Reducing Emissions from a Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) project. However, the carbon benefits of REDD projects may be compromised by leakage, or displacement of deforestation to areas outside of the reserve. Through environmental modeling techniques it is possible to simulate scenarios that represent changes in land use and land cover and thus assess the possible trajectories and magnitude of deforestation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Juma reserve in reducing deforestation and to estimate projected carbon emission by 2050. The simulated scenarios were: (1) baseline scenario, without the creation of the Juma reserve; (2) scenario with leakage (SL) where the creation of the reserve would cause a spatial shift in deforestation, and (3) scenario with reduced leakage (SRL), where the amount of deforestation resulting from leakage is reduced. Considering the study area as a whole (Juma reserve +120-km buffer zone), there would be a 16.0% (14,695km 2) reduction in forest cover by 2050 in the baseline scenario, 15.9% (14,647km 2) in the SL and 15.4% (14,219km 2) in the SRL, as compared to what was present in 2008. The loss of forest cover within the limits of the Juma reserve by 2050 would be 18.9% (1052km 2) in the baseline scenario and 7.1% (395km 2) in the SL and SRL. From the simulated scenarios, the carbon stock in the total study area was estimated to be reduced from 1.63 Pg C (Pg=10 15g=1 billion tons) in 2008 to 1.37 Pg C in 2050 in the baseline scenario and in the SL and to 1.38 Pg C in the SRL. In the area of the Juma reserve, the carbon stock would be reduced from 0.10 Pg C in 2008 to 0.08 Pg C in 2050 (baseline) or 0.09 Pg C (SL and SRL). The Juma reserve was effective in reducing carbon emission by 2050, but the reduction would be substantially less than that calculated in the Juma REDD project. Leakage must be accounted for in REDD projects because the deforestation resulting from this effect could generate " hot air" (carbon credit with no additionality). Over longer time horizons the benefits of reserves are greater and leakage losses are recovered. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
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