Forecasting the flood-pulse in Central Amazonia by ENSO-indices
The flood-pulse of the large rivers in Central Amazonia triggers ecological processes of the floodplain systems inducing a severe seasonality in the annual cycle between the aquatic and the terrestrial phase. The nutrient-rich floodplains (várzea) have the highest human population density in Amazoni...
| Autor principal: | Schöngart, Jochen |
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| Outros Autores: | Junk, Wolfgang Johannes |
| Grau: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | English |
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Journal of Hydrology
2020
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| Acesso em linha: |
https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/18677 |
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oai:repositorio:1-18677 |
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oai:repositorio:1-18677 Forecasting the flood-pulse in Central Amazonia by ENSO-indices Schöngart, Jochen Junk, Wolfgang Johannes Discharge (fluid Mechanics) Forecasting Mathematical Models Rivers Sea Surface Temperature (sst) Southern Oscillation Index (soi) Water Level Floods Discharge (fluid Mechanics) Floods Forecasting Mathematical Models Rivers El Nino-southern Oscillation Flood Forecasting Method River Discharge Sea Surface Temperature Southern Oscillation Water Level Amazon River South America The flood-pulse of the large rivers in Central Amazonia triggers ecological processes of the floodplain systems inducing a severe seasonality in the annual cycle between the aquatic and the terrestrial phase. The nutrient-rich floodplains (várzea) have the highest human population density in Amazonia and economic activities such as fishing, agriculture, pasture and timber extraction are directly associated with water-level fluctuations. The discharge of many tropical river systems responds to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) originating from the tropical Pacific. Several studies show a strong relationship between the flooding regime of Amazonian rivers and ENSO-indices, such as the meteorological Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). During warm ENSO-phases (El Niño) flood-levels are lowered and aquatic phases are shortened, while high and prolonged flooding is associated to cold ENSO-phases (La Niña). Here we present retrospective forecasts of the maximum water level in Central Amazonia from 1903 to 2004 - generally occurring in the second half of June - and the length of the aquatic phase along the flood-gradient by models based on the SOI and SST anomalies of the El Niño 3.4 region in February, four months before its appearance. The forecast of the flood-pulse allows also predicting parameters correlated with the flood-pulse (e.g., tree growth, biogeochemical cycles) and increases the efficiency in planning and executing of economic activities by the human population (e.g., fishery, timber extraction, agriculture). © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 2020-06-15T22:02:31Z 2020-06-15T22:02:31Z 2007 Artigo https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/18677 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.11.005 en Volume 335, Número 1-2, Pags. 124-132 Restrito Journal of Hydrology |
| institution |
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - Repositório Institucional |
| collection |
INPA-RI |
| language |
English |
| topic |
Discharge (fluid Mechanics) Forecasting Mathematical Models Rivers Sea Surface Temperature (sst) Southern Oscillation Index (soi) Water Level Floods Discharge (fluid Mechanics) Floods Forecasting Mathematical Models Rivers El Nino-southern Oscillation Flood Forecasting Method River Discharge Sea Surface Temperature Southern Oscillation Water Level Amazon River South America |
| spellingShingle |
Discharge (fluid Mechanics) Forecasting Mathematical Models Rivers Sea Surface Temperature (sst) Southern Oscillation Index (soi) Water Level Floods Discharge (fluid Mechanics) Floods Forecasting Mathematical Models Rivers El Nino-southern Oscillation Flood Forecasting Method River Discharge Sea Surface Temperature Southern Oscillation Water Level Amazon River South America Schöngart, Jochen Forecasting the flood-pulse in Central Amazonia by ENSO-indices |
| topic_facet |
Discharge (fluid Mechanics) Forecasting Mathematical Models Rivers Sea Surface Temperature (sst) Southern Oscillation Index (soi) Water Level Floods Discharge (fluid Mechanics) Floods Forecasting Mathematical Models Rivers El Nino-southern Oscillation Flood Forecasting Method River Discharge Sea Surface Temperature Southern Oscillation Water Level Amazon River South America |
| description |
The flood-pulse of the large rivers in Central Amazonia triggers ecological processes of the floodplain systems inducing a severe seasonality in the annual cycle between the aquatic and the terrestrial phase. The nutrient-rich floodplains (várzea) have the highest human population density in Amazonia and economic activities such as fishing, agriculture, pasture and timber extraction are directly associated with water-level fluctuations. The discharge of many tropical river systems responds to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) originating from the tropical Pacific. Several studies show a strong relationship between the flooding regime of Amazonian rivers and ENSO-indices, such as the meteorological Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). During warm ENSO-phases (El Niño) flood-levels are lowered and aquatic phases are shortened, while high and prolonged flooding is associated to cold ENSO-phases (La Niña). Here we present retrospective forecasts of the maximum water level in Central Amazonia from 1903 to 2004 - generally occurring in the second half of June - and the length of the aquatic phase along the flood-gradient by models based on the SOI and SST anomalies of the El Niño 3.4 region in February, four months before its appearance. The forecast of the flood-pulse allows also predicting parameters correlated with the flood-pulse (e.g., tree growth, biogeochemical cycles) and increases the efficiency in planning and executing of economic activities by the human population (e.g., fishery, timber extraction, agriculture). © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| format |
Artigo |
| author |
Schöngart, Jochen |
| author2 |
Junk, Wolfgang Johannes |
| author2Str |
Junk, Wolfgang Johannes |
| title |
Forecasting the flood-pulse in Central Amazonia by ENSO-indices |
| title_short |
Forecasting the flood-pulse in Central Amazonia by ENSO-indices |
| title_full |
Forecasting the flood-pulse in Central Amazonia by ENSO-indices |
| title_fullStr |
Forecasting the flood-pulse in Central Amazonia by ENSO-indices |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the flood-pulse in Central Amazonia by ENSO-indices |
| title_sort |
forecasting the flood-pulse in central amazonia by enso-indices |
| publisher |
Journal of Hydrology |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| url |
https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/18677 |
| _version_ |
1787144557006159872 |
| score |
11.755432 |