Artigo

Climate change effects on neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling

Assessing the nature and magnitude of potential effects of climate change on populations is important to anticipating effects on species diversity for conservation planning. We used ecological niche modeling to predict present and future distributions of 49 species of manakins (Pipridae) and allies....

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Autor principal: Anciães, Marina
Outros Autores: Peterson, Andrew Townsend
Grau: Artigo
Idioma: English
Publicado em: Condor 2020
Assuntos:
Pipridae
Acesso em linha: https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/18714
id oai:repositorio:1-18714
recordtype dspace
spelling oai:repositorio:1-18714 Climate change effects on neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling Anciães, Marina Peterson, Andrew Townsend Pipridae Assessing the nature and magnitude of potential effects of climate change on populations is important to anticipating effects on species diversity for conservation planning. We used ecological niche modeling to predict present and future distributions of 49 species of manakins (Pipridae) and allies. Predictions for present-day distributions were highly coincident with independent test data, suggesting good predictive ability. Assuming no dispersal, projections of potential distributions under four scenarios of climate change predicted that 20% of manakin species would likely go extinct from their current ranges, and that distributions would in general be reduced and fragmented, regardless of the area of present-day potential distribution or rarity. Predicted changes in potential distributions, spatial configuration of suitable habitats, and geographic position of species ranges were more dramatic for species inhabiting flatlands than for montane species. These results are an example of how ecological niche modeling techniques can anticipate the nature and magnitude of changes in biodiversity in response to climate change. © The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006. 2020-06-15T22:02:41Z 2020-06-15T22:02:41Z 2006 Artigo https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/18714 10.1650/0010-5422(2006)108[778:CCEONM]2.0.CO;2 en Volume 108, Número 4, Pags. 778-791 Restrito Condor
institution Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - Repositório Institucional
collection INPA-RI
language English
topic Pipridae
spellingShingle Pipridae
Anciães, Marina
Climate change effects on neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling
topic_facet Pipridae
description Assessing the nature and magnitude of potential effects of climate change on populations is important to anticipating effects on species diversity for conservation planning. We used ecological niche modeling to predict present and future distributions of 49 species of manakins (Pipridae) and allies. Predictions for present-day distributions were highly coincident with independent test data, suggesting good predictive ability. Assuming no dispersal, projections of potential distributions under four scenarios of climate change predicted that 20% of manakin species would likely go extinct from their current ranges, and that distributions would in general be reduced and fragmented, regardless of the area of present-day potential distribution or rarity. Predicted changes in potential distributions, spatial configuration of suitable habitats, and geographic position of species ranges were more dramatic for species inhabiting flatlands than for montane species. These results are an example of how ecological niche modeling techniques can anticipate the nature and magnitude of changes in biodiversity in response to climate change. © The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.
format Artigo
author Anciães, Marina
author2 Peterson, Andrew Townsend
author2Str Peterson, Andrew Townsend
title Climate change effects on neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling
title_short Climate change effects on neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling
title_full Climate change effects on neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling
title_fullStr Climate change effects on neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling
title_full_unstemmed Climate change effects on neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling
title_sort climate change effects on neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling
publisher Condor
publishDate 2020
url https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/18714
_version_ 1787142437758566400
score 11.755432

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