Impacto das mudanças climáticas na produtividade da cultura da soja (Glycine max (L.) Merr) na Amazônia – estudo de caso no município de Santarém - PA
Climate change generated by general circulation models in response to the increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration and its possible impacts on agricultural ecosystems are the focus of many studies in the scientific community. This study had as objective to evaluate and quantify the possible eff...
| Autor principal: | Cavero, Poholl Adan Sagratzki |
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| Grau: | Tese |
| Idioma: | por |
| Publicado em: |
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA
2020
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| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: |
https://repositorio.inpa.gov.br/handle/1/12979 http://lattes.cnpq.br/4132667691357125 |
| Resumo: |
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Climate change generated by general circulation models in response to
the increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration and its possible impacts on
agricultural ecosystems are the focus of many studies in the scientific community.
This study had as objective to evaluate and quantify the possible effects of
climate change on soybeans, considering the projections of climate scenarios of
the IPCC AR5 to the eastern Amazon region, using the agronomic model Inland-
Agro. The model was fitted and validated, and satisfactorily represented the heat
sensible and heat latent fluxes, and water content of the soil. Projections of
monthly mean temperature and precipitation eight global circulation models were
analyzed to represent the study area, and the Hadgem2ES model that best
simulated the observed data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) for both
variables. Projections, the climatological monthly averages of the sequence of
the years 2031-2060 and 2071-2100 Hadgem2ES in atmospheric CO 2
concentrations of 513 and 801 ppm respectively were used to force the Inland
Agro-model. In order to obtain simulations, representing soybean ecosystem
acclimatization at high atmospheric CO 2 assimilation, the variable maximum
speed of the rubisco enzyme (Vmax) was adjusted to values of 20 and 13X10 -6
mol (CO 2 ) .m -2 . s -1 in CO 2 concentrations of 513 and 801 ppm respectively. Thus
the model was able to satisfactorily represent the study variables such as LAI,
yield, latent heat and heat sensible fluxes and evapotranspiration in high
concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 , when compared to the results reported by
experiments using FACE technology. They were also carried out simulations
combining high CO 2 (513 and 801 ppm) and the projections generated by model
Hadgem2ES (air temperature, precipitation, short wave, long wave and relative
humidity), individually with each of them and with all the variables together using
standard Vmax values (45X10 -6 mol (CO 2 ) .m -2 .s -1 ) and adjusted Vmax. Results
in these simulations indicate the need to include an acclimatization function for
the soybean crop in the Inland-Agro model code |